Highway Trust Fund Running Dry: Solutions & Outlook by 2025

The Highway Trust Fund (HTF)—the main federal source for funding our nation’s highways and mass transit—was once self-sustaining thanks to the federal gasoline tax. But as of mid‑2025, it’s on the brink of insolvency, with profound consequences for infrastructure, budgets, and American drivers.

⏳ Critical Warning: A Fast-Approaching Cliff

Projected depletion by mid‑2028. Recent reports confirm the HTF will run out of funds by 2028 unless Congress acts.
By that point, the HTF will face annual shortfalls of $40 billion, with a cumulative deficit exceeding $240 billion through 2033.
The CBO projects an even grimmer outlook: deficits ballooning to $135 billion by 2031, nearly $280 billion by 2034.

📉 Why the Trust Fund Failed — and When

Stagnant gas tax
The federal gasoline tax has been stuck at 18.4¢/gal since 1993. Inflation has halved its real value, undermining revenue.
Fewer gallons sold
Improved fuel efficiency and the rise of EVs mean drivers buy less gas—impacting the revenue stream.
Overspending
HTF outlays exceed revenues annually. In FY 2024, outlays reached $70.6 billion while receipts were just $42.5 billion, widening the structural deficit .
Federal bailouts
Congress has patched the fund with $275 billion in general-fund transfers since 2008—masking the structural shortfall.

💸 The Cost to You

Without replenishment, state DOTs will face cutbacks or delays in key highway and transit projects .
Infrastructure deterioration could cost commuters thousands of hours and billions in productivity—and erode U.S. competitiveness, already ranked 17th globally in road quality.
Local economies and job creation are at risk as federal funding dries up.

🛣 Three Paths Forward

According to think tanks like Taxpayers for Common Sense, there are three options:

Increase general-fund transfers (essentially more federal borrowing)—unsustainable and unfair.
Raise user fees — via an indexed gas tax, tolling, mileage-based user fees (VMT), or EV fees.
Reduce spending — meaning fewer highway expansions and stricter prioritization.

🔧 What Congress Should Consider

Index the gas tax to inflation (e.g., raising to ~40¢/gal today).
Expand modern user fees like VMT or road-use tolling for equity.
Apply targeted EV fees while broader pricing reforms transition in.
Engage stakeholders across regions and road users, not just state highway lobbyists—which already demand $400 billion for 2026–2031 while revenues cap at $190 billion .

✅ Conclusion: An Infrastructure Reckoning Is Overdue

The Highway Trust Fund’s insolvency isn’t a distant threat—it’s a financial reality with major implications for national mobility and safety. Policymakers must stop papering over the problem with general-fund bailouts and take bold, transparent action:

Adjust user fees for today’s economy.
Tie revenue to usage.
Be strategic in road and transit investment.

Without structural reform, Americans can expect longer commutes, slower networks, and crumbling roads—ironic for a country built on its highways. The time to fix the funding model is now—and it needs to be fair, forward‑looking, and built for 21st-century transport challenges.